The latest results are in from the S&P's Case-Shiller Price index—not only are things picking up in Dallas, but other cities are showing improvements as well. This marks the fifth month of consistent year over year price gains for the Dallas-Ft Worth area (3% this month), leading to more optimistic prognosticators to cast bets on further growth in the future. According to the report, home prices are up 2% overall across the nation.
Even so, not everyone necessarily sees room for optimism, especially in regions that have seen home price declines up to this point. This is because it is still too early to see how many gains are the sole product of government intervention. Any complex equilibrium state will see some regression as the outside motivator (in this case, government tax credits and the Fed's lingering influence in the mortgage market) for grow leaves the system. It remains to see how much regression we will see.
Regarding equilibrium, the state of other housing markets is likely to be a larger factor now that prices have begun to stabilize, as edge-cases become the focus for economic forecasters, though some attention will still be paid to exceptional performers.
The last major influence on housing prices—foreclosure rates—are also somewhat unpredictable. Fluctuations are influenced by the government's restructuring programs, just as sales rates are influenced by the tax credit. Depending on the success of modification programs, foreclosures either cease to be a significant factor or hit with renewed force as time limits run out.
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